Macro environment
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 14.5 — barely 0.91% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.39, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.63 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is +3.0%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$
Source: fred · as of 2026-08-30
Per-position evidence
#1 FIGS
FIGS
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
Composite 74.8 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7698.87).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 64.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 62.9 | |
| Technical | 73.8 | |
| Fundamental | 56.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 74.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 99 | |
Technicals (2026-08-28)
| RSI(14) | 71.1 |
ADX(14) | 44.2 |
| MACD | 1.047 |
Signal | 1.006 |
| MACD hist | 0.041 |
ATR(14) | 0.68 |
| SMA 20 | 13.92 |
SMA 50 | 11.81 |
| SMA 200 | 12.38 |
Vol ratio | 0.84 |
| Boll upper | 16.95 |
Boll lower | 10.88 |
| CCI(20) | 84.6 |
MFI(14) | 65.2 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 72.0 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 4.27 |
P/S | 3.91 |
| ROE | 14.4 |
ROA | 10.9 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 24.7 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 686.6 |
FIGS selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 74.8/100
#2 TWLO
TWLO
Technology
Composite 75.8 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7762.51).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 58.2 | |
| Catalyst | 80.0 | |
| Sentiment | 57.0 | |
| Technical | 72.7 | |
| Fundamental | 67.8 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 75.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 96 | |
Technicals (2026-08-28)
| RSI(14) | 59.5 |
ADX(14) | 19.0 |
| MACD | 6.781 |
Signal | 6.902 |
| MACD hist | -0.121 |
ATR(14) | 10.36 |
| SMA 20 | 226.98 |
SMA 50 | 210.89 |
| SMA 200 | 160.55 |
Vol ratio | 0.92 |
| Boll upper | 265.35 |
Boll lower | 188.60 |
| CCI(20) | 52.8 |
MFI(14) | 64.3 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.0 |
ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
Rev growth | 0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.11 |
EPS growth | 1.3 |
TWLO selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 75.8/100
#3 RNW
RNW
Utilities
Composite 67.8 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7605.36).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 53.6 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 83.6 | |
| Technical | 74.7 | |
| Fundamental | 54.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 67.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 94 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 22.0 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.84 |
P/S | 0.02 |
| ROE | 0.1 |
ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
Rev growth | 0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 0.2 |
RNW selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 67.8/100
#4 CMBT
CMBT
Energy
Composite 64.7 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7652.10).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 50.7 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 69.2 | |
| Technical | 71.9 | |
| Fundamental | 43.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 64.7 | — |
| Universe percentile | 91 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 30.0 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.05 |
P/S | 2.89 |
| ROE | 23.3 |
ROA | 6.5 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 56.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | -60.5 |
CMBT selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 64.7/100
#5 SRRK
SRRK
Biotechnology
Composite 66.0 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7732.96).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 55.2 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 59.9 | |
| Technical | 65.8 | |
| Fundamental | 45.7 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 66.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 89 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 18.30 |
P/S | 200.79 |
| ROE | -159.1 |
ROA | -86.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | n/a |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
SRRK selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 66.0/100
#8 AVNT
AVNT
Chemicals
Composite 59.6 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7691.12).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 52.7 | |
| Catalyst | 52.3 | |
| Sentiment | 80.9 | |
| Technical | 63.8 | |
| Fundamental | 65.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 59.6 | — |
| Universe percentile | 81 | |
Technicals (2026-08-26)
| RSI(14) | 64.5 |
ADX(14) | 26.9 |
| MACD | 2.039 |
Signal | 1.923 |
| MACD hist | 0.116 |
ATR(14) | 1.29 |
| SMA 20 | 41.58 |
SMA 50 | 38.80 |
| SMA 200 | 35.89 |
Vol ratio | 0.64 |
| Boll upper | 49.30 |
Boll lower | 33.87 |
| CCI(20) | 61.1 |
MFI(14) | 78.0 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 51.4 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.20 |
P/S | 1.29 |
| ROE | 6.6 |
ROA | 2.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 1.3 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 58.7 |
AVNT selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 59.6/100
#9 EXK
EXK
Metals & Mining
Composite 35.3 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($7657.91).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 55.6 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 59.7 | |
| Technical | 77.5 | |
| Fundamental | 45.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 35.3 | — |
| Universe percentile | 51 | |
Technicals (2026-08-28)
| RSI(14) | 58.8 |
ADX(14) | 25.3 |
| MACD | 0.665 |
Signal | 0.636 |
| MACD hist | 0.029 |
ATR(14) | 0.62 |
| SMA 20 | 10.15 |
SMA 50 | 8.87 |
| SMA 200 | 9.76 |
Vol ratio | 1.86 |
| Boll upper | 12.09 |
Boll lower | 8.21 |
| CCI(20) | 66.6 |
MFI(14) | 45.1 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 47.8 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 4.89 |
P/S | 6.71 |
| ROE | 10.7 |
ROA | 5.5 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 139.9 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
EXK selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 35.3/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.