These are the 10 names I am backing for the week of August 17, 2026, and below each one I show my work: the momentum, the technicals, the sentiment, the fundamentals, and the macro I am leaning on. I do not ask you to take the picks on faith — I ask you to read the evidence and disagree if you can. The pillar weights and a few model internals stay redacted because they are the edge; everything that can be shown, is.
Macro environment
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 14.6 — barely 0.92% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.51, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.71 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is +4.4%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$
Source: fred · as of 2026-08-16
How I make the call
I score every candidate from 0–100 on several independent pillars,
then collapse them into one composite. The weighting is the part I keep back,
but the structure is simple:
$$\text{Composite}(x) \;=\; \sum_i w_i \, S_i(x)$$
where \(S_i\) is a pillar score and \(w_i\) its weight. The exact pillar
weights are mine to keep, so they are withheld; what I will tell you is
that a neutral-pillar guard drops any pillar sitting at 50 (no signal) and
renormalises the rest, so a silent factor never dilutes a loud one.
For the expected weekly return I do not trust a raw historical average at a
given score — small samples lie. I shrink it toward a prior, blending the
realised returns of past names that scored nearby with that prior in proportion
to how much evidence I actually have:
$$\hat{r}(s) \;=\; \frac{n\,\bar r_{\text{near}} + k\,\pi(s)}{n + k}$$
Here \(k\) (the shrinkage strength) and the prior \(\pi\) take proprietary
values , and they are exactly what I re-estimate as new weeks land —
this is where the framework learns. The standard indicator formulas below I
show in full, because none of that is the edge.
Indicator formula reference
RSI: $$\mathrm{RSI}_{14}=100-\frac{100}{1+RS},\quad RS=\frac{\overline{\text{gain}}_{14}}{\overline{\text{loss}}_{14}}$$
MACD: $$\mathrm{MACD}=\mathrm{EMA}_{12}-\mathrm{EMA}_{26},\quad \text{signal}=\mathrm{EMA}_9(\mathrm{MACD})$$
ATR: $$\mathrm{ATR}_{14}=\tfrac{1}{14}\sum TR,\quad TR=\max\big(H-L,\,|H-C_{-1}|,\,|L-C_{-1}|\big)$$
Bollinger: $$\mathrm{BB}=\mathrm{SMA}_{20}\pm 2\,\sigma_{20}$$
Cross-sectional z: $$z=\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}$$
The picks
#1 TDW
TDW
Energy
Composite 66.9 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 58.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 67.8 | |
| Technical | 62.1 | |
| Fundamental | 84.3 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 66.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 99 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 12.3 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.83 |
P/S | 3.05 |
| ROE | 23.8 |
ROA | 13.3 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | -0.9 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 78.5 |
TDW selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 66.9/100
#2 FRPT
FRPT
Food Products
Composite 75.9 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 58.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 73.6 | |
| Technical | 67.3 | |
| Fundamental | 67.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 75.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 96 | |
Technicals (2026-08-14)
| RSI(14) | 71.1 |
ADX(14) | 32.6 |
| MACD | 4.225 |
Signal | 3.246 |
| MACD hist | 0.979 |
ATR(14) | 3.03 |
| SMA 20 | 63.76 |
SMA 50 | 58.12 |
| SMA 200 | 62.03 |
Vol ratio | 0.46 |
| Boll upper | 75.29 |
Boll lower | 52.23 |
| CCI(20) | 117.2 |
MFI(14) | 74.0 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 25.1 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 2.46 |
P/S | 3.17 |
| ROE | 16.6 |
ROA | 11.3 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 12.8 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 449.7 |
FRPT selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 75.9/100
#3 FRSH
FRSH
Technology
Composite 80.2 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 54.9 | |
| Catalyst | 75.0 | |
| Sentiment | 62.6 | |
| Technical | 60.7 | |
| Fundamental | 84.3 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 80.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 94 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 16.8 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.34 |
P/S | 3.68 |
| ROE | 19.5 |
ROA | 12.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 15.6 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
FRSH selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 80.2/100
#4 CVNA
CVNA
Consumer Cyclical
Composite 73.8 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 48.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 62.4 | |
| Technical | 76.6 | |
| Fundamental | 72.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 73.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 91 | |
Technicals (2026-08-14)
| RSI(14) | 58.7 |
ADX(14) | 19.7 |
| MACD | 0.403 |
Signal | -1.429 |
| MACD hist | 1.833 |
ATR(14) | 3.96 |
| SMA 20 | 67.21 |
SMA 50 | 67.17 |
| SMA 200 | 269.89 |
Vol ratio | 0.49 |
| Boll upper | 76.46 |
Boll lower | 57.95 |
| CCI(20) | 135.8 |
MFI(14) | 63.5 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.3 |
ROA | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
Rev growth | 0.5 |
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 |
EPS growth | 4.3 |
CVNA selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 73.8/100
#5 ZIM
ZIM
Marine
Composite 73.4 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 57.0 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 67.7 | |
| Technical | 76.7 | |
| Fundamental | 53.7 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 73.4 | — |
| Universe percentile | 89 | |
Technicals (2026-08-14)
| RSI(14) | 63.5 |
ADX(14) | 17.6 |
| MACD | 0.462 |
Signal | 0.276 |
| MACD hist | 0.186 |
ATR(14) | 0.94 |
| SMA 20 | 25.55 |
SMA 50 | 25.21 |
| SMA 200 | 23.70 |
Vol ratio | 3.45 |
| Boll upper | 27.74 |
Boll lower | 23.36 |
| CCI(20) | 175.7 |
MFI(14) | 75.2 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 6.6 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 0.64 |
P/S | 0.46 |
| ROE | 2.5 |
ROA | 0.9 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | -29.1 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | -95.8 |
ZIM selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 73.4/100
#6 TOST
TOST
Financial Services
Composite 70.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 50.7 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 63.8 | |
| Technical | 73.7 | |
| Fundamental | 65.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 70.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 81 | |
Technicals (2026-08-14)
| RSI(14) | 63.8 |
ADX(14) | 31.9 |
| MACD | 1.663 |
Signal | 1.637 |
| MACD hist | 0.026 |
ATR(14) | 1.30 |
| SMA 20 | 32.70 |
SMA 50 | 29.27 |
| SMA 200 | 30.22 |
Vol ratio | 0.71 |
| Boll upper | 37.07 |
Boll lower | 28.32 |
| CCI(20) | 77.3 |
MFI(14) | 61.7 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 59.8 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 13.40 |
P/S | 3.33 |
| ROE | 23.8 |
ROA | 15.7 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 23.0 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 120.8 |
TOST selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 70.1/100
#7 SPSC
SPSC
Technology
Composite 67.5 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 63.6 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 80.8 | |
| Technical | 58.8 | |
| Fundamental | 50.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 67.5 | — |
| Universe percentile | 79 | |
Technicals (2026-08-13)
| RSI(14) | 72.7 |
ADX(14) | 32.1 |
| MACD | 4.288 |
Signal | 3.700 |
| MACD hist | 0.588 |
ATR(14) | 2.98 |
| SMA 20 | 69.45 |
SMA 50 | 62.36 |
| SMA 200 | 69.31 |
Vol ratio | 1.67 |
| Boll upper | 81.20 |
Boll lower | 57.69 |
| CCI(20) | 115.4 |
MFI(14) | 81.3 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 29.3 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.45 |
P/S | 3.64 |
| ROE | 8.1 |
ROA | 6.8 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 9.8 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | -4.9 |
SPSC selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 67.5/100
#8 SEPN
SEPN
Pharmaceuticals
Composite 67.8 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 53.3 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 50.0 | n/a |
| Technical | 77.0 | |
| Fundamental | 47.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 67.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 76 | |
Technicals (2026-08-14)
| RSI(14) | 65.5 |
ADX(14) | 32.8 |
| MACD | 2.996 |
Signal | 1.969 |
| MACD hist | 1.027 |
ATR(14) | 2.42 |
| SMA 20 | 37.65 |
SMA 50 | 35.67 |
| SMA 200 | 28.21 |
Vol ratio | 1.23 |
| Boll upper | 47.53 |
Boll lower | 27.76 |
| CCI(20) | 115.1 |
MFI(14) | 58.9 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.27 |
P/S | 45.85 |
| ROE | -9.4 |
ROA | -6.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | n/a |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
SEPN selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 67.8/100
#9 RELY
RELY
Financial Services
Composite 76.8 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 56.2 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 48.3 | |
| Technical | 64.2 | |
| Fundamental | 73.1 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 76.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 71 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 73.6 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.32 |
P/S | 3.06 |
| ROE | 12.7 |
ROA | 8.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 27.3 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
RELY selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 76.8/100
#10 LYFT
LYFT
Road & Rail
Composite 62.3 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 54.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 54.5 | |
| Technical | 75.8 | |
| Fundamental | 72.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 62.3 | — |
| Universe percentile | 64 | |
Technicals (2026-08-11)
| RSI(14) | 68.3 |
ADX(14) | 28.3 |
| MACD | 0.616 |
Signal | 0.427 |
| MACD hist | 0.189 |
ATR(14) | 0.66 |
| SMA 20 | 15.84 |
SMA 50 | 15.05 |
| SMA 200 | 16.34 |
Vol ratio | 0.71 |
| Boll upper | 17.77 |
Boll lower | 13.91 |
| CCI(20) | 152.1 |
MFI(14) | 69.0 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.9 |
ROA | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
Rev growth | 0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 |
EPS growth | 112.5 |
LYFT selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 62.3/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.
