These are the 10 names I am backing for the week of August 10, 2026, and below each one I show my work: the momentum, the technicals, the sentiment, the fundamentals, and the macro I am leaning on. I do not ask you to take the picks on faith — I ask you to read the evidence and disagree if you can. The pillar weights and a few model internals stay redacted because they are the edge; everything that can be shown, is.
Macro environment
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 15.2 — barely 0.95% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.46, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.71 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is +2.4%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$
Source: fred · as of 2026-08-09
How I make the call
I score every candidate from 0–100 on several independent pillars,
then collapse them into one composite. The weighting is the part I keep back,
but the structure is simple:
$$\text{Composite}(x) \;=\; \sum_i w_i \, S_i(x)$$
where \(S_i\) is a pillar score and \(w_i\) its weight. The exact pillar
weights are mine to keep, so they are withheld; what I will tell you is
that a neutral-pillar guard drops any pillar sitting at 50 (no signal) and
renormalises the rest, so a silent factor never dilutes a loud one.
For the expected weekly return I do not trust a raw historical average at a
given score — small samples lie. I shrink it toward a prior, blending the
realised returns of past names that scored nearby with that prior in proportion
to how much evidence I actually have:
$$\hat{r}(s) \;=\; \frac{n\,\bar r_{\text{near}} + k\,\pi(s)}{n + k}$$
Here \(k\) (the shrinkage strength) and the prior \(\pi\) take proprietary
values , and they are exactly what I re-estimate as new weeks land —
this is where the framework learns. The standard indicator formulas below I
show in full, because none of that is the edge.
Indicator formula reference
RSI: $$\mathrm{RSI}_{14}=100-\frac{100}{1+RS},\quad RS=\frac{\overline{\text{gain}}_{14}}{\overline{\text{loss}}_{14}}$$
MACD: $$\mathrm{MACD}=\mathrm{EMA}_{12}-\mathrm{EMA}_{26},\quad \text{signal}=\mathrm{EMA}_9(\mathrm{MACD})$$
ATR: $$\mathrm{ATR}_{14}=\tfrac{1}{14}\sum TR,\quad TR=\max\big(H-L,\,|H-C_{-1}|,\,|L-C_{-1}|\big)$$
Bollinger: $$\mathrm{BB}=\mathrm{SMA}_{20}\pm 2\,\sigma_{20}$$
Cross-sectional z: $$z=\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}$$
The picks
#1 PLTR
PLTR
Technology
Composite 63.9 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 65.7 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 61.9 | |
| Technical | 73.8 | |
| Fundamental | 73.8 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 63.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 99 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 72.8 |
ADX(14) | 20.3 |
| MACD | 7.202 |
Signal | 2.411 |
| MACD hist | 4.791 |
ATR(14) | 8.87 |
| SMA 20 | 135.04 |
SMA 50 | 132.60 |
| SMA 200 | 152.28 |
Vol ratio | 2.37 |
| Boll upper | 164.13 |
Boll lower | 105.96 |
| CCI(20) | 216.1 |
MFI(14) | 69.1 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.2 |
ROA | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
Rev growth | 0.6 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 2.3 |
PLTR selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 63.9/100
#2 IOVA
IOVA
Biotechnology
Composite 60.3 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 67.0 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 59.6 | |
| Technical | 81.8 | |
| Fundamental | 37.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 60.3 | — |
| Universe percentile | 96 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 70.6 |
ADX(14) | 22.9 |
| MACD | 0.268 |
Signal | 0.157 |
| MACD hist | 0.111 |
ATR(14) | 0.51 |
| SMA 20 | 4.83 |
SMA 50 | 4.40 |
| SMA 200 | 3.37 |
Vol ratio | 1.45 |
| Boll upper | 6.07 |
Boll lower | 3.58 |
| CCI(20) | 224.5 |
MFI(14) | 59.5 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 1.55 |
P/S | 10.74 |
| ROE | -50.2 |
ROA | -38.8 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 34.3 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
IOVA selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 60.3/100
#3 SHOP
SHOP
Technology
Composite 58.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 66.2 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 59.1 | |
| Technical | 72.8 | |
| Fundamental | 45.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 58.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 94 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 71.3 |
ADX(14) | 21.8 |
| MACD | 6.013 |
Signal | 3.221 |
| MACD hist | 2.792 |
ATR(14) | 7.72 |
| SMA 20 | 126.15 |
SMA 50 | 119.23 |
| SMA 200 | 132.63 |
Vol ratio | 1.07 |
| Boll upper | 146.61 |
Boll lower | 105.69 |
| CCI(20) | 216.9 |
MFI(14) | 54.3 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 158.4 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 15.55 |
P/S | 16.88 |
| ROE | 15.1 |
ROA | 13.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 32.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | -17.3 |
SHOP selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 58.1/100
#4 THC
THC
Health Care
Composite 60.0 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 57.2 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 78.4 | |
| Technical | 68.6 | |
| Fundamental | 57.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 60.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 91 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 71.1 |
ADX(14) | 34.1 |
| MACD | 18.342 |
Signal | 15.933 |
| MACD hist | 2.408 |
ATR(14) | 9.67 |
| SMA 20 | 226.86 |
SMA 50 | 199.55 |
| SMA 200 | 201.80 |
Vol ratio | 0.56 |
| Boll upper | 287.10 |
Boll lower | 166.62 |
| CCI(20) | 79.4 |
MFI(14) | 85.9 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 15.0 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 4.14 |
P/S | 0.99 |
| ROE | 50.6 |
ROA | 7.4 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 7.4 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 66.2 |
THC selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 60.0/100
#5 EXLS
EXLS
Professional Services
Composite 63.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 58.0 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 79.9 | |
| Technical | 73.0 | |
| Fundamental | 61.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 63.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 89 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 68.0 |
ADX(14) | 30.7 |
| MACD | 1.882 |
Signal | 1.374 |
| MACD hist | 0.508 |
ATR(14) | 1.36 |
| SMA 20 | 30.63 |
SMA 50 | 28.96 |
| SMA 200 | 33.83 |
Vol ratio | 1.40 |
| Boll upper | 37.23 |
Boll lower | 24.03 |
| CCI(20) | 94.2 |
MFI(14) | 68.6 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 21.1 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 7.38 |
P/S | 2.53 |
| ROE | 28.5 |
ROA | 14.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 13.6 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 10.1 |
EXLS selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 63.1/100
#6 BDC
BDC
Electrical Equipment
Composite 69.9 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 53.5 | |
| Catalyst | 72.5 | |
| Sentiment | 84.0 | |
| Technical | 70.1 | |
| Fundamental | 71.8 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 69.9 | — |
| Universe percentile | 86 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 73.4 |
ADX(14) | 30.5 |
| MACD | 5.166 |
Signal | 1.885 |
| MACD hist | 3.282 |
ATR(14) | 4.74 |
| SMA 20 | 110.94 |
SMA 50 | 112.19 |
| SMA 200 | 118.85 |
Vol ratio | 1.43 |
| Boll upper | 133.94 |
Boll lower | 87.95 |
| CCI(20) | 136.8 |
MFI(14) | 84.4 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.2 |
ROA | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
Rev growth | 0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.89 |
EPS growth | 0.2 |
BDC selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 69.9/100
#7 DV
DV
Media
Composite 55.5 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 65.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 61.9 | |
| Technical | 76.0 | |
| Fundamental | 40.8 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 55.5 | — |
| Universe percentile | 84 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 69.3 |
ADX(14) | 17.0 |
| MACD | 0.329 |
Signal | 0.196 |
| MACD hist | 0.133 |
ATR(14) | 0.53 |
| SMA 20 | 11.50 |
SMA 50 | 10.97 |
| SMA 200 | 10.61 |
Vol ratio | 7.97 |
| Boll upper | 12.68 |
Boll lower | 10.31 |
| CCI(20) | 267.7 |
MFI(14) | 82.6 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.0 |
ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
Rev growth | 0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.02 |
EPS growth | -0.1 |
DV selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 55.5/100
#8 ATI
ATI
Aerospace & Defense
Composite 63.5 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 58.9 | |
| Catalyst | 80.0 | |
| Sentiment | 61.8 | |
| Technical | 63.8 | |
| Fundamental | 56.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 63.5 | — |
| Universe percentile | 74 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 76.9 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 8.78 |
P/S | 6.78 |
| ROE | 24.2 |
ROA | 8.4 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 2.9 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 10.7 |
ATI selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 63.5/100
#9 W
W
Retail
Composite 62.2 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 53.5 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 65.6 | |
| Technical | 61.7 | |
| Fundamental | 68.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 62.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 69 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | n/a |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | 0.1 |
ROA | -0.1 |
| Net margin | -0.0 |
Rev growth | 0.1 |
| Debt/Equity | -1.02 |
EPS growth | 0.4 |
W selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 62.2/100
#10 SKE
SKE
Metals & Mining
Composite 61.1 / 100
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
|---|
| Momentum | 53.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 81.7 | |
| Technical | 78.1 | |
| Fundamental | 36.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 61.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 64 | |
Technicals (2026-08-07)
| RSI(14) | 67.6 |
ADX(14) | 14.3 |
| MACD | 0.800 |
Signal | 0.128 |
| MACD hist | 0.672 |
ATR(14) | 1.57 |
| SMA 20 | 27.41 |
SMA 50 | 27.66 |
| SMA 200 | 27.38 |
Vol ratio | 1.45 |
| Boll upper | 31.23 |
Boll lower | 23.59 |
| CCI(20) | 249.7 |
MFI(14) | 68.1 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 24.95 |
P/S | n/a |
| ROE | -185.4 |
ROA | -33.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | n/a |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
SKE selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 61.1/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.
