Macro environment
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 16.6 — barely 1.05% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.35, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.75 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is -0.9%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$
Source: fred · as of 2026-07-05
Per-position evidence
#1 DLTR
DLTR
Retail
Composite 67.7 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 43.8 | |
| Catalyst | 75.0 | |
| Sentiment | 83.9 | |
| Technical | 76.9 | |
| Fundamental | 51.2 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 67.7 | — |
| Universe percentile | 98 | |
Technicals (2026-06-09)
| RSI(14) | 59.5 |
ADX(14) | 30.6 |
| MACD | 2.503 |
Signal | 1.078 |
| MACD hist | 1.425 |
ATR(14) | 4.69 |
| SMA 20 | 101.82 |
SMA 50 | 103.37 |
| SMA 200 | 110.21 |
Vol ratio | 0.79 |
| Boll upper | 119.50 |
Boll lower | 84.15 |
| CCI(20) | 72.5 |
MFI(14) | 59.6 |
Sentiment & news
| Combined sentiment | +0.49 |
Momentum (WoW) | n/a |
| News (pos/neg) | 2/0 |
Social posts | 0 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 18.6 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 6.21 |
P/S | 1.23 |
| ROE | 35.9 |
ROA | 9.5 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 51.3 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | -4.8 |
DLTR selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 67.7/100
#2 GEN
GEN
Technology
Composite 72.4 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 45.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 57.9 | |
| Technical | 64.2 | |
| Fundamental | 75.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 72.4 | — |
| Universe percentile | 95 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 16.5 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 4.38 |
P/S | 3.21 |
| ROE | 39.9 |
ROA | 6.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 27.1 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 53.5 |
GEN selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 72.4/100
#3 PPG
PPG
Chemicals
Composite 67.4 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 45.5 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 58.5 | |
| Technical | 63.1 | |
| Fundamental | 53.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 67.4 | — |
| Universe percentile | 92 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 17.7 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 2.90 |
P/S | 1.76 |
| ROE | 20.2 |
ROA | 7.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | -3.9 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 50.5 |
PPG selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 67.4/100
#4 MCO
MCO
Financial Services
Composite 71.2 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 44.4 | |
| Catalyst | 68.2 | |
| Sentiment | 96.6 | |
| Technical | 71.9 | |
| Fundamental | 54.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 71.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 88 | |
Technicals (2026-06-16)
| RSI(14) | 61.4 |
ADX(14) | 13.0 |
| MACD | 1.042 |
Signal | 0.105 |
| MACD hist | 0.937 |
ATR(14) | 11.30 |
| SMA 20 | 451.91 |
SMA 50 | 446.98 |
| SMA 200 | 478.32 |
Vol ratio | 1.19 |
| Boll upper | 463.55 |
Boll lower | 440.27 |
| CCI(20) | 247.0 |
MFI(14) | 55.1 |
Sentiment & news
| Combined sentiment | +0.29 |
Momentum (WoW) | n/a |
| News (pos/neg) | 1/0 |
Social posts | 0 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 34.8 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 22.48 |
P/S | 11.10 |
| ROE | 66.7 |
ROA | 16.2 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 8.9 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 20.4 |
MCO selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 71.2/100
#5 INCY
INCY
Biotechnology
Composite 71.1 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 44.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 70.5 | |
| Technical | 62.3 | |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 71.1 | — |
| Universe percentile | 85 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 18.1 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.75 |
P/S | 4.54 |
| ROE | 29.2 |
ROA | 21.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 21.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 2455.3 |
INCY selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 71.1/100
#6 PACS
PACS
Health Care
Composite 65.7 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 52.7 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 51.1 | |
| Technical | 63.3 | |
| Fundamental | 54.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 65.7 | — |
| Universe percentile | 82 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 36.8 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 6.35 |
P/S | 1.33 |
| ROE | 26.6 |
ROA | 4.4 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 140.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 1434.5 |
PACS selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 65.7/100
#7 OSCR
OSCR
Insurance
Composite 68.8 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 52.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 67.6 | |
| Technical | 62.7 | |
| Fundamental | 48.7 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 68.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 78 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.89 |
P/S | 0.83 |
| ROE | -3.3 |
ROA | -0.6 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 32.6 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
OSCR selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 68.8/100
#8 ILMN
ILMN
Life Sciences Tools & Services
Composite 68.0 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 48.8 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 56.6 | |
| Technical | 63.0 | |
| Fundamental | 58.4 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 68.0 | — |
| Universe percentile | 75 | |
Technicals
No indicators on file yet.
Fundamentals
| P/E | 33.6 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 7.55 |
P/S | 6.57 |
| ROE | 34.0 |
ROA | 13.4 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 1.3 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
ILMN selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 68.0/100
#9 OSW
OSW
Diversified Consumer Services
Composite 53.8 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 52.5 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 59.0 | |
| Technical | 72.7 | |
| Fundamental | 57.6 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 53.8 | — |
| Universe percentile | 72 | |
Technicals (2026-06-17)
| RSI(14) | 71.1 |
ADX(14) | 20.2 |
| MACD | 0.574 |
Signal | 0.275 |
| MACD hist | 0.299 |
ATR(14) | 0.68 |
| SMA 20 | 24.51 |
SMA 50 | 24.31 |
| SMA 200 | 22.04 |
Vol ratio | 1.67 |
| Boll upper | 26.39 |
Boll lower | 22.62 |
| CCI(20) | 207.6 |
MFI(14) | 63.4 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | 40.7 |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 3.90 |
P/S | 3.03 |
| ROE | 14.1 |
ROA | 10.8 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 9.5 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | 18.7 |
OSW selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 53.8/100
#10 RLAY
RLAY
Biotechnology
Composite 52.2 / 100
Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).
Decision & pillar scores
| Pillar | Score | Weight |
| Momentum | 61.9 | |
| Catalyst | 50.0 | n/a |
| Sentiment | 50.0 | n/a |
| Technical | 78.4 | |
| Fundamental | 50.9 | |
| Smart Money | | n/a |
| ML Ensemble | | |
| Composite | 52.2 | — |
| Universe percentile | 68 | |
Technicals (2026-06-18)
| RSI(14) | 63.9 |
ADX(14) | 20.4 |
| MACD | 0.494 |
Signal | 0.348 |
| MACD hist | 0.146 |
ATR(14) | 0.97 |
| SMA 20 | 14.44 |
SMA 50 | 14.17 |
| SMA 200 | 9.31 |
Vol ratio | 1.17 |
| Boll upper | 15.92 |
Boll lower | 12.95 |
| CCI(20) | 151.1 |
MFI(14) | 61.6 |
Fundamentals
| P/E | n/a |
PEG | n/a |
| P/B | 2.59 |
P/S | 264.71 |
| ROE | -43.9 |
ROA | -40.1 |
| Net margin | n/a |
Rev growth | 39.0 |
| Debt/Equity | n/a |
EPS growth | n/a |
RLAY selected based on:
• UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days
• COMPOSITE SCORE: 52.2/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.