← All research
Execution · Buys

Trade Execution — Buys PAPER TRADING

10 positions opened · week of July 06, 2026
Redacted — proprietary method withheld. The space is kept so you can see where detail exists.

Execution summary

I filled 10 market orders at Monday's open for the week of July 06, 2026. I show the ATR-scaled stop and the conviction I carried in; the position weightings stay proprietary.

TickerFillSharesValue $StopCompositeExp. return
DLTR0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop67.7
GEN0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop72.4
PPG0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop67.4
MCO0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop71.2
INCY0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop71.1
PACS0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop65.7
OSCR0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop68.8
ILMN0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop68.0
OSW0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop53.8
RLAY0.000.00008166.67GTC ATR stop52.2

Macro environment

VIX
16.59
10Y−2Y
+0.35
HY OAS
2.75
Unemployment
4.2
SPY 20d
-0.93%

Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility is cheap at 16.6 — barely 1.05% a day — and cheap vol is exactly where I watch crowding hardest, the 10y−2y curve has steepened to +0.35, a quieter vote of confidence in duration, high-yield spreads at 2.75 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is -0.9%, the trend I am actually trading against.

Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:

$$\sigma_{\text{daily}}\approx\dfrac{\mathrm{VIX}}{\sqrt{252}}\qquad w_{\text{gross}}\;\propto\;\dfrac{\sigma_{\text{target}}}{\sigma_{\text{daily}}}$$

Source: fred · as of 2026-07-05

Per-position evidence

#1 DLTR DLTR Retail Composite 67.7 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

DLTR price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum43.8
Catalyst75.0
Sentiment83.9
Technical76.9
Fundamental51.2
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite67.7
Universe percentile98

Technicals (2026-06-09)

RSI(14)59.5 ADX(14)30.6
MACD2.503 Signal1.078
MACD hist1.425 ATR(14)4.69
SMA 20101.82 SMA 50103.37
SMA 200110.21 Vol ratio0.79
Boll upper119.50 Boll lower84.15
CCI(20)72.5 MFI(14)59.6

Sentiment & news

Combined sentiment+0.49 Momentum (WoW)n/a
News (pos/neg)2/0 Social posts0

Fundamentals

P/E18.6 PEGn/a
P/B6.21 P/S1.23
ROE35.9 ROA9.5
Net marginn/a Rev growth51.3
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth-4.8
DLTR selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 67.7/100
#2 GEN GEN Technology Composite 72.4 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

GEN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum45.9
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment57.9
Technical64.2
Fundamental75.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite72.4
Universe percentile95

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

GEN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 72.4/100
#3 PPG PPG Chemicals Composite 67.4 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

PPG price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum45.5
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment58.5
Technical63.1
Fundamental53.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite67.4
Universe percentile92

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

PPG selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 67.4/100
#4 MCO MCO Financial Services Composite 71.2 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

MCO price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum44.4
Catalyst68.2
Sentiment96.6
Technical71.9
Fundamental54.9
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite71.2
Universe percentile88

Technicals (2026-06-16)

RSI(14)61.4 ADX(14)13.0
MACD1.042 Signal0.105
MACD hist0.937 ATR(14)11.30
SMA 20451.91 SMA 50446.98
SMA 200478.32 Vol ratio1.19
Boll upper463.55 Boll lower440.27
CCI(20)247.0 MFI(14)55.1

Sentiment & news

Combined sentiment+0.29 Momentum (WoW)n/a
News (pos/neg)1/0 Social posts0

Fundamentals

P/E34.8 PEGn/a
P/B22.48 P/S11.10
ROE66.7 ROA16.2
Net marginn/a Rev growth8.9
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth20.4
MCO selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 71.2/100
#5 INCY INCY Biotechnology Composite 71.1 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

INCY price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum44.9
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment70.5
Technical62.3
Fundamental55.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite71.1
Universe percentile85

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E18.1 PEGn/a
P/B3.75 P/S4.54
ROE29.2 ROA21.6
Net marginn/a Rev growth21.5
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth2455.3
INCY selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 71.1/100
#6 PACS PACS Health Care Composite 65.7 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

PACS price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum52.7
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment51.1
Technical63.3
Fundamental54.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite65.7
Universe percentile82

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E36.8 PEGn/a
P/B6.35 P/S1.33
ROE26.6 ROA4.4
Net marginn/a Rev growth140.5
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growth1434.5
PACS selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 65.7/100
#7 OSCR OSCR Insurance Composite 68.8 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

OSCR price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum52.9
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment67.6
Technical62.7
Fundamental48.7
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite68.8
Universe percentile78

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/En/a PEGn/a
P/B3.89 P/S0.83
ROE-3.3 ROA-0.6
Net marginn/a Rev growth32.6
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
OSCR selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 68.8/100
#8 ILMN ILMN Life Sciences Tools & Services Composite 68.0 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

ILMN price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum48.8
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment56.6
Technical63.0
Fundamental58.4
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite68.0
Universe percentile75

Technicals

No indicators on file yet.

Fundamentals

P/E33.6 PEGn/a
P/B7.55 P/S6.57
ROE34.0 ROA13.4
Net marginn/a Rev growth1.3
Debt/Equityn/a EPS growthn/a
ILMN selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 68.0/100
#9 OSW OSW Diversified Consumer Services Composite 53.8 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

OSW price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum52.5
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment59.0
Technical72.7
Fundamental57.6
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite53.8
Universe percentile72

Technicals (2026-06-17)

RSI(14)71.1 ADX(14)20.2
MACD0.574 Signal0.275
MACD hist0.299 ATR(14)0.68
SMA 2024.51 SMA 5024.31
SMA 20022.04 Vol ratio1.67
Boll upper26.39 Boll lower22.62
CCI(20)207.6 MFI(14)63.4
OSW selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 53.8/100
#10 RLAY RLAY Biotechnology Composite 52.2 / 100

Filled at 0.00 for 0.0000 shares ($8166.67).

RLAY price (60d)

Decision & pillar scores

PillarScoreWeight
Momentum61.9
Catalyst50.0n/a
Sentiment50.0n/a
Technical78.4
Fundamental50.9
Smart Moneyn/a
ML Ensemble
Composite52.2
Universe percentile68

Technicals (2026-06-18)

RSI(14)63.9 ADX(14)20.4
MACD0.494 Signal0.348
MACD hist0.146 ATR(14)0.97
SMA 2014.44 SMA 5014.17
SMA 2009.31 Vol ratio1.17
Boll upper15.92 Boll lower12.95
CCI(20)151.1 MFI(14)61.6
RLAY selected based on: • UPCOMING CATALYSTS: High probability events within 30 days • COMPOSITE SCORE: 52.2/100
A standing note on method. I run this book in paper-trading mode, so every fill you see is simulated rather than a realised, audited track record — I would rather state that plainly than flatter the numbers. Nothing here is investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation; it is my own research, published so it can be read and argued with in the open. The blacked-out passages mark the parts of the process I keep proprietary. And because the framework recalibrates every week, where my read was wrong I expect the priors — not my ego — to be the first to say so.