I track 163 liquid US names continuously, and this is my read of the whole tape as of June 25, 2026 — the backdrop I am selecting into, not a trade list. I care less about where the index closed than about how it got there: who is participating, where money is rotating, and where positioning has stretched far enough to matter. The discipline is the same every week, but the conclusions are not — the framework keeps learning, and so do I.
Here is how I read the backdrop: volatility sits mid-band at 18.6 (about 1.17% a day), neither complacent nor panicked, high-yield spreads at 2.76 are still contained, so credit is not yet contradicting the tape, and the S&P's trailing month is -1.4%, the trend I am actually trading against.
Volatility is the first thing I price, because it sets the size of every other bet. I scale gross exposure inversely to realised vol — target the risk, not the notional — so a calmer tape lets the book breathe and a violent one pulls it in automatically:
Source: fred · as of 2026-06-25
Across 163 names in the tracked universe, breadth measures how much of the tape is participating in the trend rather than a handful of leaders. Participation is the share of the universe trading above its own moving averages:
Breadth is my lie-detector for a rally: it tells me whether the index is being lifted by the many or faked by the few. As I read it, 58% sit above their 50-day line, a selective tape that rewards picking over owning the index, longer-term participation still leads the 50-day, so the primary trend is intact even as the near term wobbles, advancers lead decliners 91:72 (an A/D ratio of 1.26), and 11 names are overbought against 7 oversold, the internal tension I weigh for mean-reversion risk.
I count participation and the advance/decline split directly, so the claim is checkable rather than asserted:
My read maps to a posture; the exact breadth thresholds that set position sizing stay proprietary and withheld.
Capital is leaning into Diversified Consumer Services (+15.1% on the trailing month) and away from Technology (-18.5%). That 33.5-point spread is the rotation I am trading: I want the weekly book overweight where both price and participation agree, not where one is dragging the other.
Average 20-day return and SMA50 participation by sector — the raw rotation map under the read above.
| Sector | Names | Avg 20d | % > SMA50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diversified Consumer Services | 1 | +15.06% | 100% |
| Chemicals | 9 | +14.04% | 50% |
| Health Care | 7 | +13.18% | 67% |
| Unknown | 2 | +11.11% | 100% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 2 | +10.60% | 100% |
| Semiconductors | 9 | +10.08% | 100% |
| Machinery | 7 | +9.94% | 100% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 2 | +9.20% | 100% |
| Banking | 8 | +8.67% | 100% |
| Consumer products | 2 | +8.30% | 100% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 4 | +5.60% | 25% |
| Electrical Equipment | 3 | +4.92% | 100% |
| Biotechnology | 7 | +3.87% | 67% |
| Real Estate | 11 | +1.30% | 60% |
| Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods | 2 | +0.90% | 0% |
| Logistics & Transportation | 2 | +0.59% | 50% |
| Road & Rail | 4 | -0.05% | 100% |
| Utilities | 10 | -0.10% | 60% |
| Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | 7 | -0.29% | 43% |
| Communications | 1 | -0.64% | n/a |
| Retail | 10 | -1.13% | 44% |
| Insurance | 1 | -1.40% | 0% |
| Financial Services | 12 | -3.28% | 45% |
| Beverages | 2 | -4.54% | 50% |
| Energy | 10 | -5.34% | 30% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 6 | -6.01% | 50% |
| Metals & Mining | 2 | -6.98% | 0% |
| Media | 10 | -7.46% | 40% |
| Telecommunication | 4 | -10.58% | 0% |
| Automobiles | 1 | -15.14% | n/a |
| Technology | 5 | -18.47% | n/a |
The strongest names — DD, HUM, AMAT — are where momentum is already doing my work, and I respect a trend until it breaks rather than fading it on a hunch and the laggards — ZTS, CE, ALB — I read as either falling knives or set-ups, and I refuse to confuse the two without a catalyst.
| Ticker | 20d | RSI |
|---|---|---|
| DD | +187.16% | 52.6 |
| HUM | +60.66% | 81.8 |
| AMAT | +33.16% | 62.7 |
| MU | +28.08% | 66.9 |
| NVMI | +20.98% | n/a |
| INTC | +20.65% | 65.3 |
| KNSA | +18.15% | n/a |
| CVS | +16.98% | 69.1 |
| Ticker | 20d | RSI |
|---|---|---|
| ZTS | -31.81% | 27.3 |
| CE | -29.37% | 34.6 |
| ALB | -27.26% | 33.6 |
| DOW | -27.24% | 27.6 |
| ORCL | -25.06% | n/a |
| CHTR | -24.59% | 31.3 |
| NXST | -23.38% | 24.3 |
| CME | -22.31% | 21.3 |
I read sentiment as a crowding gauge, not a green light. Where the crowd is most bullish I ask what is left to buy; where it is most bearish I ask what is left to sell. The extremes below are useful precisely because they are uncomfortable — they tell me where positioning, not fundamentals, is setting the price.
| Ticker | Sentiment | 20d |
|---|---|---|
| SRE | +0.96 | -1.34% |
| CI | +0.95 | +1.66% |
| ITW | +0.91 | +5.89% |
| YUM | +0.87 | -4.53% |
| PEG | +0.87 | +3.06% |
| O | +0.86 | -2.80% |
| EQR | +0.86 | +0.83% |
| DUK | +0.85 | -1.29% |
| Ticker | Sentiment | 20d |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | -0.46 | -4.97% |
| CHTR | -0.30 | -24.59% |
| CMCSA | -0.17 | -16.46% |
| AEP | -0.13 | +0.00% |
| DLTR | -0.11 | +8.07% |
| STT | -0.10 | +7.35% |
| CAT | -0.10 | +15.48% |
| MAR | -0.09 | +0.49% |
This is my survey of the whole universe I track, not a trade recommendation. Breadth, the advance/decline split and the RSI extremes are standard, publicly defined measures, and I show them in full so you can check my arithmetic. What I keep back is how I combine these readings into position sizing and risk posture — that blend is the edge, and it recalibrates as the evidence does.